Media Reports on Updated Oliver Wyman Pilot Shortage Data

The pilot shortage in North America is looking better compared to last year according to Oliver Wyman. Oliver Wyman projects the gap between pilot supply and demand to around 13,300 – compared to the original outlook being 17,300- a 23% difference from last year's projection.

Geoff Murray, Partner in Oliver Wyman's Transportation and Services Practice, shares that the reasons for improvement are clear: increased supply and smaller demand. 

Pilot supply is growing due to an increase in the number for pilots achieving certification to fly commercial airlines. There is expected to be an incoming 6,900 pilots for 4,200 retirements this year.

The decreased demand for pilots stems from fewer flights, parked regional aircraft, and supply chain-related production delays. 

Despite an upward trajectory, the shortage is expected to persist throughout the foreseeable future. Demand is set to increase over the next decade by 30%, leaving the gap of pilots to remain at 13,000. 

Although the pilot shortage will remain over the next decade, it could be much worse. Geoff shared that, if flights were at pre-pandemic levels, there could be an additional 6,000 pilots accounted into the shortage.

Read about the updated outlook here and here and here.